Stalking Horse, Provocateur, and PMC-Pirate for Putin
Set Up: Yevgeny Prigozhin has popped-up again in Belarus, claiming that new Wagner Group deployments are coming, emphasizing Africa and not ruling out future action in Ukraine. This, as Wagner fighters train Belarusian troops near Belarus’s border with Poland, and Russian troops mass with tanks, artillery, and multiple rocket launchers…
Did Storm 0558 Access an On-Premises Hardware Security Module?
Set-up: On June 14th @Serghei for Bleeping Computer tweeted that “Microsoft says it still doesn’t know how Storm-0558 Chinese hackers stole an inactive MSA consumer signing key used to breach the Exchange Online and Azure AD accounts of two dozen organizations, including U.S. government agencies.” Bleeping Computer seemed to rely…
Pattern Leads: Singapore Servers a Factor in China Hack?
Set-up: A Chinese hacker group called Storm-0558 reportedly breached accounts inside more than 24 organizations, including U.S. State Department officials’ Microsoft accounts leading-up to Secretary Antony Blinken’s June trip to Beijing. The hackers exploited a validation coding error enabling them to forge Azure AD tokens using an acquired Microsoft account…
Implications for Russians if “Wagner Doesn’t Exist”
The BBC reported that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said, “Wagner doesn’t exist” when asked if Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group would continue as a fighting force aggressing against Ukraine. Putin set his portrayal of Wagner Group’s non-existence in the context of Russian law prohibiting mercenary armies, a law that he admittedly…
Collective Action: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and Nova Kakhovka Dam
Ask: What new, perhaps non-obvious proactive approaches can be taken to try to reverse weaponization of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and Ukraine’s hemispherically important Nova Kakhovka Dam by Russia? Fact: The Putin regime’s state terrorist activities against the Nova Kakhovka Dam and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station are a threat to…
From Cluster Munitions to Cluster Neutralizers
Setup: Cluster munition shells made the latest round of U.S. military support to help Ukrainian Armed Forces replenish dwindling artillery shell supplies. For that stopgap purpose, it may be the only substitute the U.S. can now give. To date, Russia has aggressed with cluster and incendiary weapons against Ukrainian defenders…
Observations: Prigozhin, Wagner & Russian Forces
Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly remains in St. Petersburg, Russia rather than in exile in Belarus as expected after his June 24th “march of justice” on Moscow. Belarusian President Lukashenko publicly speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has softened toward Prigozhin, perhaps discussing a “new” working relationship. Observations, Thoughts, and Informational Uses…
Russian Expansion Strategy: Active Measures and Nukes
In May, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said this to Russian TV audiences, per Reuters: “No one is against Kazakhstan and other countries having the same close relations that we have with the Russian Federation,” Lukashenko said. “If someone is worried … (then) it is very simple: join in the Union…
View: Autocratic model trips on its own red carpet
Mr. Khrushchev said, “We will bury you” I don’t subscribe to this point of view… -Sting Xi Jinping has spent tens of billions promoting autocracy as the new, responsible leadership model. Yet Putin’s Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and others have shown the world that autocracy is as outdated and…
Assessing Russia’s Ruling Convolutions
Perspective: In an insightful 2016 paper, “A Little Masquerade: Russia’s Evolving Employment of Maskirovka,” Major Morgan Maier, United States Army, wrote: “Russians originally employed maskirovka to create a false reality to achieve surprise and battlefield advantage over adversaries. While surprise remains a significant component of maskirovka, it fails to address…