In the News: Observations & Analyses
Ukraine: AP reported President Volodymyr Zelensky’s words at a ceremony commemorating the massacre at Babyn Yar in Kyiv of nearly 34,000 Jews during 48 hours in the 1941 Nazi occupation: “Babyn Yar is vivid proof of the atrocities that regimes are capable of when led by leaders who rely on intimidation and violence. At any…
Strategy Essay: Zelensky’s Unmet Requests are Xi Jinping’s Political Capital for Invasion of Taiwan
Chinese leader Xi Jinping uses China’s manufacturing power to help Russia’s aggression against Ukraine not out of friendship for President Vladimir Putin, but because a Putin victory in Ukraine can help him ram through his imperial military agenda for Taiwan and the region. The U.S. and free allies, by their munitions and weapons supply to…
Defending Ukraine, Changing War with Anti-Weapon Weapons
In February 2015, we wrote about a newly conceived category of advanced weapon systems purposed or repurposed to destroy aggressor states’ conventional weapons, ammo, and war supplies while such are used for aggression, yet refining the weapons to be ever more precise to that purpose, reducing collateral damage and depopulation: “These could be relabeled “disarmament…
Reality Over Reactivity for Right Result in Deterrence and Détente
As Iran provides Russia with short range ballistic missiles to use against Ukraine, U.S. officials are reportedly mulling approval of Ukraine’s request to use longer range U.S. weapons to strike Russian targets deeper inside Russia. Asked whether Ukraine should be allowed long range strike capabilities into Russian territory with U.S.-supplied weapons, The Wall Street Journal…
U.S.-China Relations: Corrosive Effects of China’s National Intelligence Law
Thaw Sought: National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has wrapped-up his August visit to China to try to find grounds for resolving gridlocked issues in U.S.-Chinese relations. One of those that may not have come up is China’s economically and geopolitically destabilizing 2017 National Intelligence Law (NIL17). Problem: NIL17 requires Chinese expats and citizens to aid…
What Caspian States Can Do If Russia Tries to Misuse Treaty to Co-Opt Them for Putin’s Wars
The Set-up In the Spring of 2018, during negotiations leading to the execution of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea on August 12, 2018 by Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan, the Russian Ministry of Defense took two actions to coerce the other parties: (1) the April 2018 relocation of the…
Policymaker Pitch: Strategy of Attrition Will Backfire on the United States – Biden Administration Must Be Bold for Ukraine Now
The United States’ piecemeal weapons micromanagement of Ukrainian defense (no ATACMS against Russian military and military logistics inside Russia) suggests to allies that the goal is to weaken Russia via attrition, not expedite victory for Ukraine. Russia’s leadership does not care about attrition so long as they ultimately rule the…
Will Russia Try to Commandeer One of Georgia’s Black Sea Ports?
Port Hunting Likely If Russia Fails to Co-opt Georgia Russia has spent a pot of oil and gas profits to promote members of Georgia’s ‘Dream Party’ who would make Georgia Moscow’s satellite, stepping up efforts in 2024 to pass a foreign agent law outlawing NGOs with 20% or more of…
Repurposing Retired Aircraft Carriers
Advocation: Stop scrapping and start repurposing retired aircraft carriers, other warships, and utility ships with advanced weapons, technologies, and capabilities. Security and Incentivizing Ideas: Keep repurposing projects strictly shrouded in mystery for potentially adversarial forces, the press, and unreliable partners as would bleed information. Put the projects under direct military…
House Obstruction Drives Risk of Long War, Lost Advantages
The Senate has passed a $95 billion dollar aid package for Ukraine and Israel but the Majority Leader in the U.S. House of Representatives, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) signaled that Republicans there will not pass it without the border security measures they want. However, a bi-partisan border security measure…