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Ukraine

What Caspian States Can Do If Russia Tries to Misuse Treaty to Co-Opt Them for Putin’s Wars

The Set-up In the Spring of 2018, during negotiations leading to the execution of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea on August 12, 2018 by Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan, the Russian Ministry of Defense took two actions to coerce the other parties: (1) the April 2018 relocation of the…

Putin Uses Pride & Fear to Coerce Continents of People

Current Issue Friday, President Vladimir Putin boasted that Russia did not need to use nuclear weapons to conquer Ukraine. Pride. And today, Reuters reported new references to Russia’s possible use of tactical nuclear weapons from the Russian MOD and Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov. Fear. This is more of Putin’s pattern of untrustworthy, contradictory communications seeking arbitrary…

Policymaker Pitch: Strategy of Attrition Will Backfire on the United States – Biden Administration Must Be Bold for Ukraine Now

The United States’ piecemeal weapons micromanagement of Ukrainian defense (no ATACMS against Russian military and military logistics inside Russia) suggests to allies that the goal is to weaken Russia via attrition, not expedite victory for Ukraine. Russia’s leadership does not care about attrition so long as they ultimately rule the ruins, secure them with nuclear…

Will Russia Try to Commandeer One of Georgia’s Black Sea Ports?

Port Hunting Likely If Russia Fails to Co-opt Georgia Russia has spent a pot of oil and gas profits to promote members of Georgia’s ‘Dream Party’ who would make Georgia Moscow’s satellite, stepping up efforts in 2024 to pass a foreign agent law outlawing NGOs with 20% or more of their funding from abroad, including…

Public Domain

Iran Regime: Russia’s and China’s Destabilizer Bot

The dictatorial theocracy of Iran has been a quasi-vassal of larger dictatorships since the Iranian revolution of 1978-79. Today Iran acts in the strategic interests of Russia and China as it seeks membership in their regional organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. From 1997-2006, Russia under Putin was the top heavy conventional weapons supplier to Iran…

https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/sun-glint-on-the-caspian-sea

Tehran’s and Moscow’s Violations of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea

Setup: Article 2(2) of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea holds that “This Convention shall define and regulate the rights and obligations of the Parties in respect of the use of the Caspian Sea, including its waters, seabed, subsoil, natural resources and the airspace over the Sea.” Article 3(2) holds that…

Collective Action: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and Nova Kakhovka Dam

Ask: What new, perhaps non-obvious proactive approaches can be taken to try to reverse weaponization of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and Ukraine’s hemispherically important Nova Kakhovka Dam by Russia? Fact: The Putin regime’s state terrorist activities against the Nova Kakhovka Dam and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station are a threat to world food supply, and specifically…

From Cluster Munitions to Cluster Neutralizers

Setup: Cluster munition shells made the latest round of U.S. military support to help Ukrainian Armed Forces replenish dwindling artillery shell supplies. For that stopgap purpose, it may be the only substitute the U.S. can now give. To date, Russia has aggressed with cluster and incendiary weapons against Ukrainian defenders and civilians, and Ukraine has…

License: CC0 Public Domain Jean Beaufort has released this “Mosaic Tiles” image under Public Domain license. It means that you can use and modify it for your personal and commercial projects. If you intend to use an image you find here for commercial use, please be aware that some photos do require a model or a property release. Pictures featuring products should be used with care.

Observations: Prigozhin, Wagner & Russian Forces

Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly remains in St. Petersburg, Russia rather than in exile in Belarus as expected after his June 24th “march of justice” on Moscow. Belarusian President Lukashenko publicly speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has softened toward Prigozhin, perhaps discussing a “new” working relationship. Observations, Thoughts, and Informational Uses Shifting words and actions by…

Warlords rise in Russia

Assessing Russia’s Ruling Convolutions

Perspective: In an insightful 2016 paper, “A Little Masquerade: Russia’s Evolving Employment of Maskirovka,” Major Morgan Maier, United States Army, wrote: “Russians originally employed maskirovka to create a false reality to achieve surprise and battlefield advantage over adversaries. While surprise remains a significant component of maskirovka, it fails to address Russia’s application of deception in…

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