China’s Strategic Buffering and Iran
Yesterday, Britain, France, and Germany asserted that Iran has violated a U.N. Resolution buttressing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) by “developing and testing ballistic missiles, transferring hundreds of drones to Russia, and enriching uranium to an unprecedented 60% level for a country without a nuclear weapons program — all in violation of a…
Argument: Iran’s Theocratic Regime is No Longer a Legitimate Nation State Government
Argument: The theocratic dictatorship of Iran is so deeply involved in terror sponsorship, principal-agent terror relationships, terrorist proxy supply, and destabilization activities adversely affecting other legitimate nation states that it can no longer be considered a legitimate nation state government itself. Iran rather fits the description of a terrorist organization occupying a former nation state’s…
Under Putin, Russia’s Vassalage to China
China’s and Russia’s “multipolar world” brand has obscured China’s global unipolar objectives and Russia’s subjection to China. As Putin gambles Russia’s future on death dealing expansion during an economic contraction, China’s power over Putin hardens. Multipolar-speak helps hide that from Russians. Susan Haynes née Turner warned of this deception risk in her 2009 paper “Russia,…
Iran Regime: Russia’s and China’s Destabilizer Bot
The dictatorial theocracy of Iran has been a quasi-vassal of larger dictatorships since the Iranian revolution of 1978-79. Today Iran acts in the strategic interests of Russia and China as it seeks membership in their regional organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. From 1997-2006, Russia under Putin was the top heavy conventional weapons supplier to Iran…
The Earthquakes of Erdogan
As an Economist headline editor put it recently, “Turkey sits at the crossroads of tectonic plates as well as civilisations.” And when the 7.8 magnitude earthquake centered near Gaziantep, Turkey caused a confirmed death toll of 50,783 souls, it highlighted the risk of autocratic license, boasting, and related corner-cutting to…
Target Logic: Shahed-136 Drones
The Russians are aiming Shahed-136 drones at Ukrainian energy nodes, buildings, and other infrastructure items, such as communications. The Shahed-136 suicide drone uses commercially available GPS as a guidance system, making it susceptible to jamming devices. In December 2021, Israel’s Jerusalem Post published a well-informed advance warning of the capabilities of…
Russia in Syria: More Footprint Than Boot
A September 14th, 2022 report of the U.N.’s Commission of Inquiry on Syrian Arab Republic found conditions similar to those that led to the wider Syrian Civil War eleven years ago. Moscow has borrowed heavily on its credited strategic gains in Syria to pay off its deep deficits in its…
Beirut’s Port Explosion: Analysis and Strategic Implications
Introduction Purpose: To analyze open source information about (1) the strategic context and (2) chain of events leading to the massive ammonium nitrate explosion in Beirut’s port on August 4th, 2020, killing some 200 people, injuring over 6,500, and displacing 250,000.¹ Pre-and-Post Explosion Context Lebanon Generally: Modern Lebanon with its…
China Update: Seizing Advantage from Strategic Lame Duck
Bloomberg reported that Iraq is prepared to enter a multi-billion dollar energy deal with China similar to that China made with Russia several years ago that culminated in the Siberian pipeline to China. These prepaid oil for financing deals are tools China uses to decouple its energy needs from U.S.…
Argument: Dynasties in U.S. Politics Present Security Vulnerabilities
Power families using their resources, names, and influence to repeatedly win or determine political offices can become de-facto dynasts to the detriment of U.S. national security. Much like software, firmware, or operating systems, such families are like programs running public offices with informational and other flaws that become well known…