What Caspian States Can Do If Russia Tries to Misuse Treaty to Co-Opt Them for Putin’s Wars
The Set-up In the Spring of 2018, during negotiations leading to the execution of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea on August 12, 2018 by Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan, the Russian Ministry of Defense took two actions to coerce the other parties: (1) the April 2018 relocation of the…
Policymaker Pitch: Strategy of Attrition Will Backfire on the United States – Biden Administration Must Be Bold for Ukraine Now
The United States’ piecemeal weapons micromanagement of Ukrainian defense (no ATACMS against Russian military and military logistics inside Russia) suggests to allies that the goal is to weaken Russia via attrition, not expedite victory for Ukraine. Russia’s leadership does not care about attrition so long as they ultimately rule the…
Jurassic World as Allegory of Dictator Club’s Rise
Above: See the video Multi Dimension Thinking Needed Yesterday I wrote that black and white thinking is not consistent with the United States as a superpower going forward. Today I found a blockbusting cinema illustration of how black and white thinking does not get us ‘Left of Bang’ or in…
A Colorful Cosmos Favors Creative Statesmanship Over Black and White Thinking
Black and white thinking is inconsistent with the United States as a superpower with a future. Reality is waveform and continuous, not a black and white still-life. As in viewing features on a landscape and noting linear patterns that almost always give away human activity, so black and white choices…
View: Autocratic model trips on its own red carpet
Mr. Khrushchev said, “We will bury you” I don’t subscribe to this point of view… -Sting Xi Jinping has spent tens of billions promoting autocracy as the new, responsible leadership model. Yet Putin’s Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and others have shown the world that autocracy is as outdated and…
To Kill Autocrat Parasitism, Break the Autocratic Spell Over its Hosts
Prescription: By three key efforts parasitic autocracies can be removed: (1) honest diplomacy, psychological, and information operations with cyber-support that break the dictatorial spell over the host peoples wherever they are; (2) giving those physically battling the aggressive parasites a decisive, unfair advantage in eradicating the parasite; (3) aiding other…
China’s Interest in Saudi Arabian Investment in Iran
China’s diplomatic aid mending Saudi-Iranian relations in the Middle East sees Saudi Arabia immediately offering investment in Iran in the name of Saudi Arabia’s self-interest in regional stability. Yet Saudi Arabia’s investment in Iran would bolster the Iranian regime’s capability to perpetuate repression of its own people, continue as Russia’s…
Tackling a Big History Lie Fueling Putin’s Xi-Jinping-Aided Aggression
Despite Beijing’s global posturing in support of national sovereignty it uses sleight of hand to export “dual use” technology (civilian and military) to supply Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine’s sovereignty. Yet Ukraine’s sovereignty is a matter of widespread international recognition. China’s strategy seems simple: tax Ukraine and the West…
Russia’s Military Movements on Ukraine
Strategically it is best to see Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine in the context of his intelligence apparatus’s 20-year gray war of psychological, emotional, and political influence against targeted populations in the West. Among strategic objectives leading-up to the invasion of Ukraine Putin pursued a range of combined objectives…
Multilateral Supply Suppression in Support of Ukraine
Argument The “Ukraine Defense Contact Support Group” (DCG) and others supporting Ukraine should take collective action to suppress international supply lines of bombs and weapons to the Russian Federation for use against Ukraine and Ukrainian civilian targets under the International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings,(CSTB) despite near certain anticipated…