What Caspian States Can Do If Russia Tries to Misuse Treaty to Co-Opt Them for Putin’s Wars
The Set-up In the Spring of 2018, during negotiations leading to the execution of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea on August 12, 2018 by Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan, the Russian Ministry of Defense took two actions to coerce the other parties: (1) the…
Putin Uses Pride & Fear to Coerce Continents of People
Current Issue Friday, President Vladimir Putin boasted that Russia did not need to use nuclear weapons to conquer Ukraine. Pride. And today, Reuters reported new references to Russia’s possible use of tactical nuclear weapons from the Russian MOD and Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov. Fear. This is more of Putin’s pattern of…
Russia’s and China’s Irregular Warfare Against Israel, Israelis, and Palestinians
Introduction Jonathan Winer’s must-read report for the Middle East Institute last November chronicled and discussed circumstantial evidence of timing, communications, training, modes of operation, financial, and weapons support by Russia for Hamas and for Iran, Hamas’s chief sponsor before and after the terror organization’s October 7, 2023 terror war on…
Policymaker Pitch: Strategy of Attrition Will Backfire on the United States – Biden Administration Must Be Bold for Ukraine Now
The United States’ piecemeal weapons micromanagement of Ukrainian defense (no ATACMS against Russian military and military logistics inside Russia) suggests to allies that the goal is to weaken Russia via attrition, not expedite victory for Ukraine. Russia’s leadership does not care about attrition so long as they ultimately rule the…
Will Russia Try to Commandeer One of Georgia’s Black Sea Ports?
Port Hunting Likely If Russia Fails to Co-opt Georgia Russia has spent a pot of oil and gas profits to promote members of Georgia’s ‘Dream Party’ who would make Georgia Moscow’s satellite, stepping up efforts in 2024 to pass a foreign agent law outlawing NGOs with 20% or more of…
OSINT Dispatch: The Nature & Potential Reach of Putin’s “Sirius” Initiative
Sirius Education Center Born from Massive Investment in Sochi In 2017, President Vladimir Putin spoke to resident youth at the Sirius Education Center housed in the Sochi Winter Olympic development and explained his inspiration for decreeing it in 2015: But I really wanted that project to be expanded with something…
Spotted May 15: FSB Coast Guard and Border Service speedboats on the Nemunas (Neman) River, near Sovetsk, Kaliningrad
SOURCE: @VideoShips on YouTube May 15, 2024: The Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB patrols the Neman River border of Russia and Lithuania. They also patrol occupied Ukrainian waters including in the Sea of Azov and the waters off of Crimea. They were formerly called the Maritime…
OSINT source: Newly Commissioned Russian Minesweeper Lev Chernavin Spotted in April
YouTube source @VideoShips posted the newly commissioned Lev Chernavin Alexandrit Class Minesweeper reportedly of the Baltic Fleet spotted April 20th, 2024. Some clear capture of the vessel passing by. Caveat: new source to me. Precise location of vessel not verified.
Russia’s Potential Strategic Use of Boring Machines
Russia’s boring machine capabilities may offer strategic and tactical underground options in a continuing, rolling war of aggression against Ukraine, and possibly beyond. Background: In 2020, Russia’s state owned company JSC Mosinzhproekt claimed the Guinness Book world record for most boring machines operating at once, demonstrating 23 boring machines at…
Russian EW Supply Lines and Followup Information Ops
One of Russia’s more successful weapons against Ukraine has been electronic warfare (EW) tech, so Russia’s EW units and supply lines need Ukrainian and international interdiction and customs attention. As of Summer 2022, 3 of 5 of Russia’s EW brigades were reportedly engaged in Ukraine. To the extent that Russia…