Belarusian Helicopters Fly Low into Poland’s Białowieża Forest
Setup: Two events aimed at NATO ally Poland were apparently orchestrated by Moscow, Belarus, and Wagner Group mercenaries this week: (1) Wagner mercenaries moved toward the strategic Suwalki gap that joins NATO ally Poland with the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), (2) and a military helicopter incursion into Poland by at least two low-flying Belarusian…
Stalking Horse, Provocateur, and PMC-Pirate for Putin
Set Up: Yevgeny Prigozhin has popped-up again in Belarus, claiming that new Wagner Group deployments are coming, emphasizing Africa and not ruling out future action in Ukraine. This, as Wagner fighters train Belarusian troops near Belarus’s border with Poland, and Russian troops mass with tanks, artillery, and multiple rocket launchers inside Belarus to open up…
Implications for Russians if “Wagner Doesn’t Exist”
The BBC reported that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said, “Wagner doesn’t exist” when asked if Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group would continue as a fighting force aggressing against Ukraine. Putin set his portrayal of Wagner Group’s non-existence in the context of Russian law prohibiting mercenary armies, a law that he admittedly violated when he told the…
Collective Action: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and Nova Kakhovka Dam
Ask: What new, perhaps non-obvious proactive approaches can be taken to try to reverse weaponization of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and Ukraine’s hemispherically important Nova Kakhovka Dam by Russia? Fact: The Putin regime’s state terrorist activities against the Nova Kakhovka Dam and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station are a threat to world food supply, and specifically…
Observations: Prigozhin, Wagner & Russian Forces
Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly remains in St. Petersburg, Russia rather than in exile in Belarus as expected after his June 24th “march of justice” on Moscow. Belarusian President Lukashenko publicly speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has softened toward Prigozhin, perhaps discussing a “new” working relationship. Observations, Thoughts, and Informational Uses Shifting words and actions by…
Assessing Russia’s Ruling Convolutions
Perspective: In an insightful 2016 paper, “A Little Masquerade: Russia’s Evolving Employment of Maskirovka,” Major Morgan Maier, United States Army, wrote: “Russians originally employed maskirovka to create a false reality to achieve surprise and battlefield advantage over adversaries. While surprise remains a significant component of maskirovka, it fails to address Russia’s application of deception in…
Designate Wagner Group and Putin Regime as a Transnational Terrorist Joint Venture in Ukraine
Ukraine and similarly situated independent states on Russia’s periphery suffer under the U.N. fiction that international humanitarian law (law of war or IHL) governs to protect them from a U.N.S.C. veto-wielding Russia while it is under the sway of Putin’s expansionist regime. It does not. The buck has never stopped on a despotic Russian veto…
If Russia Cannot Hold Ukraine What Does Victory Mean?
Nine months ago, CSIS’s Seth Jones wrote at WaPo that Russia could defeat Ukraine but could not hold the territory. Today it is not even certain that Russia can “defeat Ukraine” much less hold it. To give it a serious try, Moscow would need to dilute its defenses along borders on its vast frontier. Moscow…