Belarusian Helicopters Fly Low into Poland’s Białowieża Forest

Setup: Two events aimed at NATO ally Poland were apparently orchestrated by Moscow, Belarus, and Wagner Group mercenaries this week: (1) Wagner mercenaries moved toward the strategic Suwalki gap that joins NATO ally Poland with the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), (2) and a military helicopter incursion into Poland by at least two low-flying Belarusian…


Stalking Horse, Provocateur, and PMC-Pirate for Putin

Set Up: Yevgeny Prigozhin has popped-up again in Belarus, claiming that new Wagner Group deployments are coming, emphasizing Africa and not ruling out future action in Ukraine. This, as Wagner fighters train Belarusian troops near Belarus’s border with Poland, and Russian troops mass with tanks, artillery, and multiple rocket launchers inside Belarus to open up…

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Observations: Prigozhin, Wagner & Russian Forces

Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly remains in St. Petersburg, Russia rather than in exile in Belarus as expected after his June 24th “march of justice” on Moscow. Belarusian President Lukashenko publicly speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has softened toward Prigozhin, perhaps discussing a “new” working relationship. Observations, Thoughts, and Informational Uses Shifting words and actions by…

Warlords rise in Russia

Assessing Russia’s Ruling Convolutions

Perspective: In an insightful 2016 paper, “A Little Masquerade: Russia’s Evolving Employment of Maskirovka,” Major Morgan Maier, United States Army, wrote: “Russians originally employed maskirovka to create a false reality to achieve surprise and battlefield advantage over adversaries. While surprise remains a significant component of maskirovka, it fails to address Russia’s application of deception in…

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