Belarusian Helicopters Fly Low into Poland’s Białowieża Forest
Setup: Two events aimed at NATO ally Poland were apparently orchestrated by Moscow, Belarus, and Wagner Group mercenaries this week: (1) Wagner mercenaries moved toward the strategic Suwalki gap that joins NATO ally Poland with the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), (2) and a military helicopter incursion into Poland by at least two low-flying Belarusian…
Tehran’s and Moscow’s Violations of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea
Setup: Article 2(2) of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea holds that “This Convention shall define and regulate the rights and obligations of the Parties in respect of the use of the Caspian Sea, including its waters, seabed, subsoil, natural resources and the airspace over the Sea.” Article 3(2) holds that…
Conceptual Thoughts: Defending Against the Onyx
Setup: The Kyiv Post ran a practical headline on Thursday, July 20, entitled with subhead, “Ukraine’s Latest Missile Problem – How to Shoot Down Russia’s ‘Onyx’: Russia has taken to using “Onyx” supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles against southern coastal cities, highlighting the shortage of air defense systems capable of taking them on.” The Onyx supersonic…
Stalking Horse, Provocateur, and PMC-Pirate for Putin
Set Up: Yevgeny Prigozhin has popped-up again in Belarus, claiming that new Wagner Group deployments are coming, emphasizing Africa and not ruling out future action in Ukraine. This, as Wagner fighters train Belarusian troops near Belarus’s border with Poland, and Russian troops mass with tanks, artillery, and multiple rocket launchers inside Belarus to open up…
Did Storm 0558 Access an On-Premises Hardware Security Module?
Set-up: On June 14th @Serghei for Bleeping Computer tweeted that “Microsoft says it still doesn’t know how Storm-0558 Chinese hackers stole an inactive MSA consumer signing key used to breach the Exchange Online and Azure AD accounts of two dozen organizations, including U.S. government agencies.” Bleeping Computer seemed to rely on a June 14th update…
Pattern Leads: Singapore Servers a Factor in China Hack?
Set-up: A Chinese hacker group called Storm-0558 reportedly breached accounts inside more than 24 organizations, including U.S. State Department officials’ Microsoft accounts leading-up to Secretary Antony Blinken’s June trip to Beijing. The hackers exploited a validation coding error enabling them to forge Azure AD tokens using an acquired Microsoft account (MSA) consumer signing key, as…
Implications for Russians if “Wagner Doesn’t Exist”
The BBC reported that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said, “Wagner doesn’t exist” when asked if Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group would continue as a fighting force aggressing against Ukraine. Putin set his portrayal of Wagner Group’s non-existence in the context of Russian law prohibiting mercenary armies, a law that he admittedly violated when he told the…
Collective Action: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and Nova Kakhovka Dam
Ask: What new, perhaps non-obvious proactive approaches can be taken to try to reverse weaponization of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station and Ukraine’s hemispherically important Nova Kakhovka Dam by Russia? Fact: The Putin regime’s state terrorist activities against the Nova Kakhovka Dam and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station are a threat to world food supply, and specifically…
From Cluster Munitions to Cluster Neutralizers
Setup: Cluster munition shells made the latest round of U.S. military support to help Ukrainian Armed Forces replenish dwindling artillery shell supplies. For that stopgap purpose, it may be the only substitute the U.S. can now give. To date, Russia has aggressed with cluster and incendiary weapons against Ukrainian defenders and civilians, and Ukraine has…
Observations: Prigozhin, Wagner & Russian Forces
Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly remains in St. Petersburg, Russia rather than in exile in Belarus as expected after his June 24th “march of justice” on Moscow. Belarusian President Lukashenko publicly speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has softened toward Prigozhin, perhaps discussing a “new” working relationship. Observations, Thoughts, and Informational Uses Shifting words and actions by…