Policymaker Pitch: Strategy of Attrition Will Backfire on the United States – Biden Administration Must Be Bold for Ukraine Now
The United States’ piecemeal weapons micromanagement of Ukrainian defense (no ATACMS against Russian military and military logistics inside Russia) suggests to allies that the goal is to weaken Russia via attrition, not expedite victory for Ukraine. Russia’s leadership does not care about attrition so long as they ultimately rule the…
Will Russia Try to Commandeer One of Georgia’s Black Sea Ports?
Port Hunting Likely If Russia Fails to Co-opt Georgia Russia has spent a pot of oil and gas profits to promote members of Georgia’s ‘Dream Party’ who would make Georgia Moscow’s satellite, stepping up efforts in 2024 to pass a foreign agent law outlawing NGOs with 20% or more of their funding from abroad, including…
OSINT Dispatch: The Nature & Potential Reach of Putin’s “Sirius” Initiative
Sirius Education Center Born from Massive Investment in Sochi In 2017, President Vladimir Putin spoke to resident youth at the Sirius Education Center housed in the Sochi Winter Olympic development and explained his inspiration for decreeing it in 2015: But I really wanted that project to be expanded with something that would truly be worthy…
Spotted May 15: FSB Coast Guard and Border Service speedboats on the Nemunas (Neman) River, near Sovetsk, Kaliningrad
SOURCE: @VideoShips on YouTube May 15, 2024: The Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB patrols the Neman River border of Russia and Lithuania. They also patrol occupied Ukrainian waters including in the Sea of Azov and the waters off of Crimea. They were formerly called the Maritime Units of the KGB Border…
OSINT source: Newly Commissioned Russian Minesweeper Lev Chernavin Spotted in April
YouTube source @VideoShips posted the newly commissioned Lev Chernavin Alexandrit Class Minesweeper reportedly of the Baltic Fleet spotted April 20th, 2024. Some clear capture of the vessel passing by. Caveat: new source to me. Precise location of vessel not verified.
Russia’s Potential Strategic Use of Boring Machines
Russia’s boring machine capabilities may offer strategic and tactical underground options in a continuing, rolling war of aggression against Ukraine, and possibly beyond. Background: In 2020, Russia’s state owned company JSC Mosinzhproekt claimed the Guinness Book world record for most boring machines operating at once, demonstrating 23 boring machines at work boring new subway lines…
Russian EW Supply Lines and Followup Information Ops
One of Russia’s more successful weapons against Ukraine has been electronic warfare (EW) tech, so Russia’s EW units and supply lines need Ukrainian and international interdiction and customs attention. As of Summer 2022, 3 of 5 of Russia’s EW brigades were reportedly engaged in Ukraine. To the extent that Russia sources its EW supplies internationally,…
Dictatorships Vie for Control of U.N.’s WIPO
The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) is a likely vector for intelligence gathering by participants from China and Russia. Last week I noted a young, former Rostec executive (per his LinkedIn profile) working in Geneva, Switzerland apparently assigned to WIPO and more probably than not under pressure of the Putin regime. Indeed, in posted videos…
Repurposing Retired Aircraft Carriers
Advocation: Stop scrapping and start repurposing retired aircraft carriers, other warships, and utility ships with advanced weapons, technologies, and capabilities. Security and Incentivizing Ideas: Keep repurposing projects strictly shrouded in mystery for potentially adversarial forces, the press, and unreliable partners as would bleed information. Put the projects under direct military command, strict counterintelligence oversight, and…
House Obstruction Drives Risk of Long War, Lost Advantages
The Senate has passed a $95 billion dollar aid package for Ukraine and Israel but the Majority Leader in the U.S. House of Representatives, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) signaled that Republicans there will not pass it without the border security measures they want. However, a bi-partisan border security measure is already on the table…