Month

May 2024

Policymaker Pitch: Strategy of Attrition Will Backfire on the United States – Biden Administration Must Be Bold for Ukraine Now

The United States’ piecemeal weapons micromanagement of Ukrainian defense (no ATACMS against Russian military and military logistics inside Russia) suggests to allies that the goal is to weaken Russia via attrition, not expedite victory for Ukraine. Russia’s leadership does not care about attrition so long as they ultimately rule the ruins, secure them with nuclear…

Will Russia Try to Commandeer One of Georgia’s Black Sea Ports?

Port Hunting Likely If Russia Fails to Co-opt Georgia Russia has spent a pot of oil and gas profits to promote members of Georgia’s ‘Dream Party’ who would make Georgia Moscow’s satellite, stepping up efforts in 2024 to pass a foreign agent law outlawing NGOs with 20% or more of their funding from abroad, including…

OSINT Dispatch: The Nature & Potential Reach of Putin’s “Sirius” Initiative

Sirius Education Center Born from Massive Investment in Sochi In 2017, President Vladimir Putin spoke to resident youth at the Sirius Education Center housed in the Sochi Winter Olympic development and explained his inspiration for decreeing it in 2015: But I really wanted that project to be expanded with something that would truly be worthy…

Spotted May 15: FSB Coast Guard and Border Service speedboats on the Nemunas (Neman) River, near Sovetsk, Kaliningrad

SOURCE: @VideoShips on YouTube May 15, 2024: The Coast Guard of the Border Service of the FSB patrols the Neman River border of Russia and Lithuania. They also patrol occupied Ukrainian waters including in the Sea of Azov and the waters off of Crimea. They were formerly called the Maritime Units of the KGB Border…

@VideoShips

OSINT source: Newly Commissioned Russian Minesweeper Lev Chernavin Spotted in April

YouTube source @VideoShips posted the newly commissioned Lev Chernavin Alexandrit Class Minesweeper reportedly of the Baltic Fleet spotted April 20th, 2024. Some clear capture of the vessel passing by. Caveat: new source to me. Precise location of vessel not verified.

Russia’s Potential Strategic Use of Boring Machines

Russia’s boring machine capabilities may offer strategic and tactical underground options in a continuing, rolling war of aggression against Ukraine, and possibly beyond. Background: In 2020, Russia’s state owned company JSC Mosinzhproekt claimed the Guinness Book world record for most boring machines operating at once, demonstrating 23 boring machines at work boring new subway lines…

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